Author: Shrabana Kundu
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| Source: Financial Times |
Abstract
Economic woes and political upheaval have long plagued Sudan, but recent developments have made things far worse. Sudan has been embroiled in a brutal conflict, with army and militia forces fighting for power and control. The root causes of the conflict are complex and multifaceted, including historical tensions between different ethnic and religious groups, economic inequality, and political instability. The conflict has had devastating effects on civilians, including displacement, human rights violations, and numerous economic issues. External actors have also played a role, vying for influence in the region. This article will explore the causes and consequences of the conflict in Sudan, as well as potential solutions to bring peace and stability to the region.
Introduction
Sudan has been in chaos since mid-April when fighting erupted on the ground and in the air. The violence has claimed the lives of hundreds of people and thousands have been forced to abandon their homes. Millions of people are still caught up in the violence, and the international community is trying to figure out what is going on in Sudan and why. The situation is complex considering a long history of political and ethnic tensions, with this understanding the roots of the conflict are critical in order to find a path forward towards peace and stability. Let’s have a look at the country’s conflicted history.
Sudan’s conflicted history
Sudan is the third-largest country in Africa's northeast, with a population of over 48 million people. It began to move towards independence in the 1950s and was granted limited self-government by the British in 1953. It declared independence in 1956, enjoying a brief period of democracy before spending much of its further existence under military authority.
In a military coup in 1958, General Ibrahim Abboud seized power. Abboud's reign was characterised by brutality and censorship, and he was eventually deposed in a popular uprising in 1964.
There was a civilian government from 1964 to 1969, and Sudan had democracy and stability during this time, but it was short-lived. General Jaafar Nimeiry took power in another military coup in 1969. Nimeiry ruled Sudan for over a decade, instituting a number of economic and political reforms. However, Nimeiry's reign was also marked by repression and violation of human rights. The Sudanese government and South Sudanese rebels signed the Addis Ababa Agreement in March 1972, after fighting for autonomy and equality in Southern Sudan since 1955. With the assistance of the Ethiopian government and other international actors, the agreement was signed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Southern Sudan experienced a brief period of relative calm and prosperity as a result of the peace agreement, although it was fleeting. Nimeiry enacted Islamic legislation that discriminated against non-Muslims and women in 1983. It resulted in the commencement of the Second Sudanese Civil War, which lasted nearly two decades and resulted in the deaths of millions of people. The battle was fought between the north, which was largely Arab and Muslim, and the south, which was predominantly non-Arab and Christian or animist. The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) led the southern rebels in their quest for greater autonomy or independence from the north. The war also caused a humanitarian disaster, with millions of people uprooted and in desperate need of assistance.
These policies caused significant protests, and Nimeiry was deposed in a popular uprising in 1985. Between 1986 and 1989, there was a brief period of military rule, followed by civilian rule until 1989. In a military coup in 1989, Omar Al-Bashir seized power and ruled Sudan for the next 30 years. His regime was characterised by authoritarianism, human rights violations, and conflict with rebel groups throughout the country. Famine ravaged the country in 1991, during his administration, bringing massive hunger and death.
The Sudanese government and the SPLA concluded a comprehensive peace accord in 2005, thus ending the civil conflict. The accord offered the South some autonomy and the right to organise an independence vote after six years. South Sudan became the world's newest country after the south overwhelmingly voted for independence in 2011. Sudan has experienced a variety of obstacles since South Sudan's independence.
Sudan was involved in many battles both inside and beyond the country throughout Al-Bashir's reign, and Al-Bashir with the members of the military had been accused of genocide and crimes against humanity. In 2003, rebels launched an insurgency in the Darfur region to protest what they saw as the Sudanese government's disrespect for the western region and its non-Arab inhabitants. As a countermeasure, the government supported and equipped Arab militias, commonly known as Janjaweed, to tackle the Darfur rebels. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo was a member of the Janjaweed paramilitary group in the early years of the conflict, which was responsible for many of the atrocities committed against people in Darfur. Dagalo eventually became the chief of the Janjaweed breakaway faction known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which was created in 2013.
Coups are common in Sudan, but it wasn't until 30 years later, in 2018, that the Sudanese people had had enough. Protests erupted across Sudan in 2019, seeking an end to President Omar al-Bashir's long-ruling dictatorship. A broad coalition of opposing groups, including young activists, women's groups, and professional associations, led the protests.
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| Source: The Wire |
In the middle of this, Omar Al-Bashir appointed Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan as Inspector General of the Sudanese Army in February 2019. Two months later, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and Dagalo joined forces, and Al-Bashir was toppled by a military coup in April 2019. The army stated that its goal was to restore civilian government, but that in order to do so, it needed to remain involved. It was not easy to get rid of the military. The protestors sought civilian governance, but the military refused, thus the protests continued, leading to the Khartoum massacre on June 3, 2019, in which armed forces massacred more than 100 people during a sit-in protest.
The Unstable Transition
With international pressure mounting, a deal was finally achieved between military and civilian officials. A transitional administration, the Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC), was established to oversee Sudan until 2023, providing the country adequate time to prepare for a full transition to democracy. Power was divided between the military and citizens in this government.
General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan commanded the sovereign council, and Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok led the civilian cabinet. Not everyone in Sudan was pleased that the military remained in power, but some regarded it as the only way to end the carnage. Under this new system, many Sudanese people's lives improved from 2019 to 2021. International sanctions were withdrawn, foreign aid was resumed, and civilians were given greater freedom in their daily lives.
However, military leaders decided to seize power on October 25th, 2021, popularly known as the 2021 Sudan Coup Detat, in order to declare a state of emergency and retake total power from civilian leaders. According to the general, the military was forced to intervene in order to prevent the country from devolving into civil conflict. “What we did was not a military coup. It was simply a correction to the course of the revolution.”- General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan stated in an interview. He further stated that the Prime Minister was detained by the military to protect him and not for any other purpose.
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| Source: Al Jazeera |
Of course, the military logic did not convince everyone. For starters, General Al-Burhan's tenure as head of the sovereign council was set to expire in November 2021. The transfer of power to civilians increases the likelihood that the general and other military leaders will be investigated and punished for events that occurred while they were in control. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights stated, "Khartoum massacre victims and their families are still waiting for justice."
Military leaders wield considerable economic power and control over large industries. If they lose political power, the money they have amassed may be jeopardised. Communication services were disrupted after the military took power on October 25th, 2021. Soldiers then took to the streets. Journalists were essentially dragged from their workplaces and imprisoned. They had been advised that with a new rule in effect, they must be cautious in their reportage. Protests against the coup have been met with violence by the military forces, with reports of live bullets and tear gas being shot at demonstrators. On November 21st, 2021, after weeks of protests and international pressure, the military announced a deal with Hamdok to reinstall him as prime minister and release other political detainees. The military did not anticipate such unanimity across the country. To many, particularly those outside Sudan, it appeared to be a victory for the protestors and an indication that the matter was being resolved. However, the reaction within the country was very different, as there was a massive protest on the day the deal was announced.
The Prime Minister claims he agreed to the pact to end the violence, but many saw Hamdok's willingness to accept a deal with the military as a betrayal. General Al-Burhan received criticism for diminishing the powers that the civilian leaders had prior to the coup and for endangering Sudan's plans to bring about democracy by 2023. Tensions between the military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have proven to be a recipe for instability, with violence increasing in the Darfur, Abyei, and Blue Nile regions in 2022. Both agreed on a framework to transfer civilians’ authority in December 2022, but details of how that would be done were never agreed upon, which some claim is simply because they don't want it to happen.
What’s Happening Now?
As we all know, the country has been in chaos for the past three weeks. Violence has erupted between Sudan's two main military actors, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) commanded by Al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. They have been fighting for control not only across the country but also in Khartoum, the capital of nearly 10 million people. The incorporation of the Rapid Support Forces into the Sudan Armed Forces is currently the crux of the disagreement between the two. As a result, it has now become an existential threat to both parties, leaving little opportunity for dialogue or compromise.
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| Source: Middle East Online |
Rapid Support Forces were deployed at Merowe and in Khartoum on April 11, 2023. They were asked to evacuate by government soldiers, but they resisted. The RSF took power over the Soba military base (south of Khartoum), which led to clashes. On April 13, RSF forces began mobilising, heightening fears of a possible uprising against the junta. The mobilisation was considered illegal by the Sudan Armed Forces. The RSF claimed in a tweet that it was performing its duty by deploying across the nation and that its actions in Merowe were carried out as part of "national forces operating within the framework of the law and in full coordination with the leadership of the armed forces." In order to defuse military concerns, Dagalo declared on April 14 that he would be open to meeting with the Army General and the chairman of the nation's ruling council.
Heavy gunfire was reported from the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, on April 15, 2023, when fighting erupted between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Gunshots were heard near the army headquarters and the defence ministry in central Khartoum. Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces claimed possession of Khartoum International Airport the same day, according to Reuters. The chief of the UN mission in Sudan called for an "immediate" end to fighting between the Sudan army and paramilitaries on Saturday. Despite multiple declared cease-fires since April 16, 2023, the violence has continued, with both sides fighting for control of key sites and towns and appearing to be hopeful of military victory. All prior ceasefires have failed because both parties believe they can win a military conflict and appear to be using the fighting to strengthen their positions in case enough international pressure builds up and they are forced to negotiate.
On May 2, 2023, the South Sudanese administration stated that Sudan's warring factions had reached an agreement in principle to a seven-day truce beginning on Thursday, May 4, 2023. Despite the ostensible start of the new ceasefire on May 4, 2023, fierce fighting could be heard in central Khartoum as the army attempted to push the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) back from around the presidential residence and army headquarters. Heavy bombing was also heard in the neighbouring cities of Omdurman and Bahri.
Humanitarian Crisis
Sudan was already in the grip of a humanitarian crisis, with harsh weather, social and political turmoil, and soaring food prices fuelling poverty, hunger, and displacement. Sudan is experiencing significantly warmer and drier weather, with shorter rainy seasons limiting crop productivity and irregular rainfall increasing the likelihood of flooding. The majority of Sudanese live in rural regions and rely on rain to grow crops and keep cattle. The unexpected intense rains have also caused the greatest desert locust infestation seen in decades around the horn of Africa. Crop losses and rising food prices have made it more difficult for households to put food on the table every day. Sudan is also suffering a number of economic difficulties, including rising inflation, extremely low foreign reserves, and the international community's suspension of foreign debt relief programmes. Although inflation is predicted to fall to 115.7% in 2023 from 236.4% in 2022, stats still reflect rapidly rising prices.
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| Source: Emergency Telecommunications Cluster |
The escalating humanitarian catastrophe is causing enormous displacement within Sudan, which may eventually spill over borders. Tens of thousands have already fled to neighbouring countries, including Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan. Most hospitals have shut down, civilians struggle without power and water as food and fuel supplies have shot up. According to Doctors Without Borders, many hospitals have been plundered and others have been targeted in attacks. Aid distribution is reportedly stalled in Sudan, where one-third of the country's 45 million inhabitants had already been dependent on help before the conflict began on April 15. According to the UN, around 100,000 people have fled Sudan to bordering nations. The UN refugee agency has also warned of a full-fledged humanitarian disaster in Sudan. If the violence continues, the number of people fleeing could reach 800,000. Millions of Sudanese people are now caught between two warring factions.
Role of International Actors
The world community has criticised the recent increase in violence in Sudan's capital, Khartoum. They have attempted to initiate discussion, but have so far only been able to get foreign citizens out and assist with evacuations, albeit some have failed to do so. After criticisms that the international reaction to the situation had been inadequate, the UN says it is collaborating closely with Egyptian authorities to assist refugees crossing the border to flee the ongoing turmoil in Sudan. The United Nations Children's Fund, the International Organisation for Migration, and the World Food Programme are among the other UN agencies present to assist the arriving migrants. According to reports, the United States Agency for International Development, or USAID, has been given permission to assist the approaching migrants.
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| Source: UNICEF |
The Egyptian military has intervened in support of Sudan's Armed Forces, while Libyan rebels have provided arms and other ammunition to the RSF, indicating the beginning of the conflict's regionalisation. When major powers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates consider Sudan, they see it as a breadbasket for them because these countries have invested considerably in Sudan's agricultural industry. The UAE also maintained tight ties with Hemedti, whose Rapid Support Forces oversee the majority of Sudan's goldmines and are involved in the export of Sudanese gold to Dubai. As a result, they have a vested interest in sustaining regional stability.
Despite a House Resolution calling for sanctions following the 2021 coup, the Biden administration was hesitant to impose fresh targeted sanctions on Burhan, Hemedti, and other members of the two warring camps. Foreign Policy stated on April 19, 2023, that the Biden administration planned to impose further sanctions. And on May 4, 2023, President Joe Biden signed an executive order establishing the procedure for sanctioning those implicated in the recent unrest in Sudan, which had killed hundreds and thrown the African country into shambles.
In a statement, Biden stated that his order will hold persons accountable for endangering Sudan's peace, security and stability, for obstructing Sudan's democratic transition, using violence against civilians, or for committing significant human rights violations. "The violence taking place in Sudan is a tragedy — and it is a betrayal of the Sudanese people's clear demand for civilian government and a transition to democracy," Biden said.
Way Forward
Sudan's position is highly complicated, with deep-seated political and ethnic tensions that have been simmering for years. Hundreds of innocent people have been killed in the current outbreak of violence. It is obvious that a solution is urgently required to avert further loss of life and restore stability to the country. A ceasefire must be implemented promptly to halt the fighting so that it may also allow for dialogue. The current cease-fire deal is a step forward, but it must be properly implemented to guarantee that the warring factions do not continue to fight.
All parties must respect the ceasefire and work together to find a long-term solution to the conflict. Along with this, dialogue and negotiation between Sudan's two main armed actors, the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, must be initiated. The integration of the RSF into the SAF has become a difficult topic, but all parties must work together to find a mutually acceptable solution. The international community can play an important role in facilitating these talks and assisting the parties concerned.
The government must try to create a political system that is inclusive and representative of all residents' concerns. The international community can contribute assistance and resources to Sudan in order to help develop a stable and inclusive political system.
Finally, the humanitarian situation in Sudan requires immediate attention. Millions of people have been displaced by the fighting and require humanitarian aid. The international community must assist humanitarian organisations in ensuring that aid reaches those in most need. Such a community may play a significant role in assisting these efforts.
Conclusion
In conclusion, to achieve the long-term goal of establishing a proper political structure, all parties must collaborate to uphold the ceasefire, commence communication and negotiation, and build an inclusive representative democratic framework. Sudan faces a difficult road ahead, but with collective efforts and commitment, a steady future is achievable.
