VIJIGISHU '24

Saturday, 1 April 2023

EU Border Migrant Crisis with Belarus 2021: A New Geopolitical Challenge

 Author : Nadia Rawat

Source : CNN

ABSTRACT

The latest available data on the number of illegal border crossings (IBCs), produced by Brussels’ border management agency- Frontex, clearly projects the EU’s vulnerability rooted in refugee migration. The problem of refugee migration has always been a challenge for Brussels. From the sinking of refugee boats in the Mediterranean Sea to the case of Sarah Mardini, a Syrian swimmer, who faced charges for saving drowning refugees in the Mediterranean, continues to emphasize the question of Human Rights Violations and the Legal Code that Brussels is bound to follow with regard to the treatment of the refugees within its territory. The vulnerability of the European Union that the article talks about is not exclusively about refugee migration or how Brussels deals with it but rather about the weaponization of migrants along the EU’s borders to affect specific political outcomes. The article intends to delineate the conflict that led to a migrant crisis along the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia in 2021 and its various aspects that pose a challenge to the policy in place that concerns the management of Brussels’ external borders. Brussels’ reaction to the refugee migrant crisis with Belarus has attracted much criticism. Looking at the EU’s previous attempts to deal with the issue of illegal border crossings reveals the gaps to be addressed in the long term. 

THE TREND 

Routes from the Mediterranean sea & the Balkan region are the epicenter of migratory challenges at EU’s shores. During 2015, when the EU experienced its largest migrant wave that recorded more than a million migrants at EU’s shores, its Eastern land borders registered only 1,920 illegal border crossings(IBCs)  which in itself was the highest it registered since 2008. The figures are largely dictated by its geography. Recently in 2021, Poland, Lithuania & Latvia which make up the EU's Eastern land borders, saw a surprising spike in IBC with a total of 8,184 in 2021 alone.

 

The three countries share their borders with Belarus. The Eastern Land borders of the EU to the north are far away from the conflict zones in Africa & West Asia. But in 2021, it is on these borders where a crisis transpired  leaving thousands stranded in freezing conditions. A crisis largely engineered by the leader of Belarus - Alexander Lukashenko also known as ‘Europe’s Last Dictator’. More than a dozen deaths have been recorded since. 

 

Figure : 1



 

CONFLICT BACKGROUND

Early August 2020, Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory in Belarus’ presidential elections for the 6th time since 1994, with his previous term largely believed to have been rigged. Despite the pandemic, Lukashenko’s victory was followed by huge protests demanding his resignation. Lukashenko responded with a brutal crackdown on the protesters with many in prison, hundreds were beaten & a few died. 

 

Soon after the election results were announced, the EU foreign ministers while addressing the developments in Belarus reiterated - their call to end the violence against peaceful protesters, demanded immediate release of those detained & refused to recognise the election results. The conditions in Belarus’ however didn’t change. At least 6,700 arrests were made according to The Belarusian Ministry of Internal Affairs (reported by Amnesty International 30/10/2020) in the first four days of protests. The EU called for the European Council to impose restrictive measures including asset freeze & travel ban. The first round of Sanctions against 40 individuals was imposed, while the Second round included Lukashenko himself and many prominent people in the regime. The third round of sanctions followed by the end of December, 2020. 

 

On 23rd May, 2021, Ryanair Flight 4978 within Belarusian Airspace flying from Athens, Greece to Vilnius, Lithuania was diverted to Minsk Airport after the Belarusian authorities reported a bomb on board. The flight was allowed to depart after an opposition activist/journalist Roman Protasevich & his partner were arrested. To this, Brussels responded with new sanctions and condemned the forced landing of the flight. Alexander Lukashenko then threatened to not cooperate on the issue of migration on EU borders. By June 2021 EU had banned Belarusian air carriers of all kinds from entering their airspace & accessing their airports. The EU's fourth package of sanctions were issued in the light of continuing serious human rights violations & brutal repression. 

 

Lukashenko then engineered a crisis at its borders with the EU. The Sanctions triggered what the Frontex(EU’s border agency) in its Risk Analysis for 2022/2023 described Lukashenko’s actions as “aggressive instrumentalisation of migration in a hybrid campaign” for political purposes. The widening scope of sanctions by Brussels & aggressive retaliation by Belarus flagged the beginning of a dangerous struggle between the two actors which soon became consequential for those who left their homes to avoid conflict only to be a part of another . 

 

Later 2021, under widening sanctions by Brussels, Lukashenko announced that he wont stop any migrants from entering the EU, effectively ending its cooperation on border management. Belarus controlled travel agencies & state airlines worked in tandem to get migrants from West Asia to Minsk. Belarusian Authorities started offering tourists visas, easing travel restrictions for thousands in conflict ridden zones. Number of direct flights from Damascus, Baghdad, Istanbul & Dubai to Minsk doubled from previous year’s figures with reduced prices. Belarus’ promotion of tours to Minsk involved many agents in West Asia giving out fallacious information & instructions to possible migrants. Social media platforms were used effectively for this purpose.

 

Opening up of Belarus’ borders encouraged thousands to arrive at Minsk under a false pretense of entering the EU. Upon their arrival, Belarusian state agencies dumped hundreds of migrants at the border with the EU member states, instructing them to cross over into territories of Poland, Lithuania & Latvia. There have been reports of abuses by the Belarusian authorities & use of force against many who failed to cross over to the EU. Those who wished to go back to the countries they came from were denied the option & were forced to keep on trying to cross over. The migrants were left stranded between the forests along the eastern border in the cold. Those who tried to make it to Minsk on foot were pushed back while those who successfully crossed the border, over to the EU were sent back without due process for determination of refugees & upholding their basic human rights. 

 

Initially, Humanitarian aid & assistance, NGO’s & Civil Societies were denied access to the border areas. By September 2021, a state of emergency was imposed by Poland, Latvia & Lithuania in the areas along the border which limited movement at major border crossings thus restricting access to unauthorized individuals including many journalists, medics, human rights activists, etc. Lithuania & Poland started to consider building a border wall with Belarus. By November the situation aggravated to a level where we see Donald Tusk, a prominent Polish politician, suggested seeking help from NATO, of which Poland is a member. 

 

Masses of migrants began pushing at Bruzgi-Kuźnica border crossing between Poland & Belarus which became the epicenter of the conflict. The checkpoint was later closed. A large group of migrants pushed against Polish authorities resulting in retaliation that turned into a stand off. The Polish border personnel used water cannons & tear gas in response to aggression by the migrants assisted by the Belarusian guards. Poland started collective expulsions & summary returns for those who were successful in crossing the border which sometimes resulted in injuries. Those injured were given medical treatment & allowed to temporarily stay on Polish territory on humanitarian grounds while their families were forced to leave, many times separating them. 

 

The stranded migrants are subjected to abuses, many robbed, beaten & left in the cold. For this, both Poland & Belarus have a shared responsibility. At the time of writing this article, the situation persists. There have been efforts by humanitarian groups to assist migrants seek asylum & apply for refugee status in Belarus & in the EU. The UN's intervention amidst the crisis helped a few return to their countries & enabled NGO’s to participate. The human cost of the crisis largely remains ignored.

 

By June 2022, Poland successfully completed building a wall along its border with Belarus & had lifted the state of emergency. Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine that displaced millions of Ukrainians brings to light the ease with which the EU took in Ukrainian migrants in contrast to those who are still at the borders with Belarus and are being subjected to abuse by both sides. A report by Amnesty International was titled : Latvia: Refugees and migrants arbitrarily detained, tortured and forced to ‘voluntarily’ return to their countries.

 

PART OF POLAND

People displaced from their countries due to political instability, violence, economic or environmental reasons or otherwise, deserve certain basic human rights everywhere in the world. In the case of the EU, they should be subjected to a due process of law and a fair procedure that allows them to apply for refugee status along with proper documentation to stay, if they seek to do so. 

 

For those who seek asylum, Article 19 of the Charter Of Fundamental Rights Of The EUROPEAN UNION,  provides protection in the event of removal, expulsion & extradition. It further prohibits collective expulsion. Article 19 also states that “No one may be removed, expelled or extradited to a State where there is a serious risk that he or she would be subjected to the death penalty, torture or other inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.” 

In 2008, The European Parliament & the Council of the EU adopted ‘Directive 2008/115/EC on common standards and procedures in Member States for returning illegally staying third-country nationals’; commonly referred to as ‘the Return Directive’. It ensures that aliens illegally staying within the territory of the EU are sent back to their home countries with due procedures which are fair & transparent. The Return Directive also states that the basic human rights & the dignity of the migrants are to be respected. The Principle of non-refoulement is to be respected.  

This is not the first time that the EU member states have ignored their own legal code under the EU law as well as the International Law.

 

TURKEY

In 2015, the EU recorded its largest migrant wave across the borders in a single year. In 2015, West Asia was reeling under intense conflict that forced 1,336,010 people to migrate to Europe by the end of 2015 which was a 3,492% jump from the figures recorded around the same time the previous year. The report also indicated the major route taken by the migrants was through Turkey. 

 

Figure : 2 (WB-RAN data, Feb 2016)



 

In March 2016 EU & Turkey signed an agreement on cooperation with conditions that all migrants irregularly crossing into Greece through Turkey will be returned to Turkey while the arrangement’s cost will be covered by the EU. Turkey is to take “necessary measures” to prevent opening up of illegal crossing from their area(land & sea) into the EU. In return, the EU will liberalize its visa restrictions for Turkish citizens. The EU will also disburse 3 billion Euros initially & the progress of the deal will be reviewed in 2018 again, if the commitments materialize, EU shall provide an additional 3 billion euros to Turkey. The migrant influx dropped post the deal. 

 

Figure : 3  ( Source : Western Balkans Quarterly Quarter 2 • April–June 2016 )



 

The Bloc’s strategy is to provide its neighbors with incentives to hold migrants within their territories, thus forming a buffer zone around it in an effort to keep migrants away from the EU. 

 

However, The development in EU-Turkey relations regarding migration gave Turkey a new aspect to exploit. An already criticized approach of the bloc to pay its neighboring countries surfaced when the deal with Turkey eventually led to a diplomatic standoff. Turkey isn’t the only state that the EU has paid to hold migrants. The states surrounding the EU, especially in the Mediterranean region will always look for more incentives and use migrants as weapons to pressure the EU. 

 

WITHIN THE EU 

The EU member states close to the conflict zones with a coastal border in the south(known as Blue borders) and land borders in the east(known as Green borders) like France or Greece or Poland are affected the most while those far away from conflict areas like Luxembourg or the Netherlands do not face a migratory challenge. This disparity at times has led to differences between the member states in terms of distribution of refugees amongst themselves or mobilizing funds for border management at the bloc’s external borders. Migration hasn’t only been challenging the EU altogether but also the EU as one entity. 

 

WAY FORWARD

From a realist perspective, the EU’s neighbors will not be accommodative of its interests. Alexander Lukashenko manufactured a crisis at the borders that allowed him to exert pressure over the EU which seems to be working. Far from being expensive, the ability to create such a crisis doesn’t stem from the Belarusian government’s political or military structure nor its material capabilities but it’s the power that Belarus holds by the virtue of its geography.  

 

The larger problem however rests in the instability, poverty, low levels of development, violence and lack of economic opportunities in West Asia and Africa. As these factors are an active source of displacement, the importance of a stable Geo-strategic MENA region and its overall development should be central to understanding the challenge of migration. The block needs a better strategy to tackle the issue in the long term. 

 

In the light of the crisis manufactured by Lukashenko, Migration in recent times has taken on a new geopolitical significance. 

 

Sources : 



  1. WB-RAN -data as of 4 February 2016 (Frontex Western Balkans Quarterly Report October-December 2015)
  2. Frontex Border Control Reports : 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022-2023. 
  3. HumanRightsWatch Report / Polish Border Crisis 
  4. AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL'S SUBMISSION TO THE OFFICE OF THE HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, PURSUANT TO HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL RESOLUTION 45/1 ON "THE SITUATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS IN BELARUS IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND IN ITS AFTERMATH" ADOPTED ON 18 SEPTEMBER 2020
  5. EU - Turkey statement, 18 March 2016 144/16  Press EN 
  6. The Return Directive 2008/115/EC - European Implementation Assessment. 




No comments:

Post a Comment

Lankan Crisis: Jingoism to Jeopardy?

Go home Gota” “Go home Jokers” “You messed with the wrong generation” These are few of the  slogans on placards wielded  by young protesters...